HARARE – Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector will do well during the 2022–2023 cropping season, backed by an anticipated above-average, says the advisory group IH Securities.
The country’s agriculture sector accounts for around 17% of the overall GDP. Agriculture provides 60% of the raw materials required by the industrial sector, as well as 60% of total export revenues and employs 60-70% of the population.
For the months of October through December (OND) 2022, most of the country is predicted to experience normal to below-average rainfall, with the exception of the southern regions, where normal to above-normal rains are anticipated. According to the Meteorological Services Department, it is very likely that the entire nation will get
normal to above-average rainfall from November 2022 to January 2023.
(NDJ).For the months of December to February (DJF) and January to March (JFM) in 2023, Zimbabwe's western and southern regions are predicted to experience above-average to average rainfall, while the majority of the nation's northern and eastern provinces are expected to experience normal to above-average precipitation.
"We anticipate the agriculture sector to register positive performance owing to forecasted above- normal rainfall in the coming 2022/23 farming season," said IH Securities in its latest Zimbabwe Agriculture Sector report.
Zimbabwe uses rain-fed agriculture; hence its agricultural economy is highly dependent on the weather. The rainy season of 2021–2022 was characterized by a false start in certain regions of the nation, a season's late onset in others, and an irregularly distributed rainfall pattern both in geography and time, which led to a reduced yield. "While rainfall has been affecting agriculture production in the country, there seem to be other factors as well considering maize yield per hectare for Zimbabwe is significantly lower compared to peers within the same climatic region."
The country’s current average national maize production is about 0.7 tons per hectare, significantly less than the 1.8 tons per hectare average for Africa. Namibia, Malawi, and Mozambique produce an average of 1.2 tons of maize per hectare, Tanzania approximately 1.3 tons, Zambia about 2.5 tons, and South Africa about 5.3 tons.
But hefty fertilizer costs combined with falling crop prices might put farmers off. "We believe the government will continue implementing initiatives that reduce cost of farming so as to encourage higher production," stated IH Securities.
"Assuming this plays out, we forecast increased agriculture production and potentially reducedcereal import bill."
Future challenges to food security are likely as a result of climate change's continuing profound effects on agricultural production. Additionally, as some regions become climatically unsuited for farming, competition for land may increase.
Extreme weather events linked to climate change may also cause abrupt drops in agricultural productivity, which would result in sharp price hikes. Temperature increases of 1.5 to 5.0 degrees Celsius are anticipated by 2050. The nation would import 400 000MT of maize from Malawi and Zambia, which is expected to cost at least US$120 million before haulage and other expenses are taken into account. Overall grain
imports are anticipated to reach 700 000 MT in 2022.
